Grain Comments for 11-19-08

CORN

• An active price session seen in the corn market but the volume trade was on the light side.  The higher opening came from a weak dollar and higher crude oil.  The release of the API report sent crude oil lower and the corn followed. 
• Argentina’s corn production potential is decreasing as dryness persists.
• Basis remains weak at the Gulf showing slow export demand.  Basis is improving in the Corn Belt especially in the east where ethanol plants are trying to pry corn out of the tight fisted producer’s hands.
• An example of slow demand is the fact Japan 1^st quarter 09 purchases are 1/3 of last year’s level at this time.  U. S. corn loadings are down 38%.  The USDA expected a 25% drop.
• Open weather seen in the Midwest this week where 22% of the corn crop is still in the fields. 
• The charts are in a bottoming formation.  Many traders are afraid to get aggressive with the current charts picture.
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WHEAT

• Wheat futures traded both sides of unchanged before closing lower.  A higher U. S. Dollar weighed on price along with pressure across the grain complex.
• The wheat tender lineup looks good but confirmation of export business is lacking.
• The wheat tenders show Bangladesh for a total of 200,000, Jordan for 150,000, Syria for 200,000, CCC for 24,000 and Taiwan for 43,000 metric tons.
• Japan in their weekly wheat tender needs 91,000 metric tons all from the United States.
• Pakistan announced a white wheat tender for 200,000 metric tons.  Their last purchase of white wheat was secured from the United States.
• The ample world supply will send the poor quality wheat purchases towards the Black Sea. 
• The December Kansas City wheat contract is sitting on trend line support.  The last reaction low is 12 cents away.  We are sitting on short term support.